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Lichtman’s Keys To The White House

Allan Lichtman

The year 2016 got historians and political scientists looking for excuses. They had predicted a defeat for Donald Trump, who was trailing for most of the election. With all the reasonable excuses, especially Russia’s interference, one man was right when the polls and other commentators failed – Professor Allan Lichtman.

The 73-year-old American historian has predicted the result of the United States presidential election accurately for four decades. He is often referred to as the “Nostradamus of US presidential election.” “Pundits talk about elections as though they were horse races, but history tells us voters vote pragmatically, based on performance,” Lichtman said in one of his short videos used in predicting the election outcome.

Allan Lichtman began predicting the US presidential election in 1984. He met his partner, Vladimir Kellis-Borok, in 1981. Borok wasn’t a political scientist or historian; he was known for predicting earthquakes around the world. Lichtman often recalled that Borok invited him to create a lasting model for predicting US presidential elections.

The two men discovered a model they could use to determine who will emerge victorious in forthcoming elections in 1981. The model was later tagged “Keys to the White House” by Allan Litchman. The keys were thirteen prisms that voters consider before deciding who gets their vote.

The thirteen prisms according to their research are Midterm gains, the opponent in a primary, incumbency, no third party, strong short term economy, reliable long term economy, significant policy change, no scandal, no foreign/military failure, no foreign/military success, no social unrest, charismatic incumbent and non-charismatic incumbent. Allan Lichtman believes that if the party in power gets seven out of those prisms right, they will retain the White House.  If they fail, there will be a change of government.

Lichtman’s model of predicting elections can fail under serious scrutiny, but it has been highly successful in the past four decades and has been used to analyze previous elections correctly. More than any abstract assumptions, the model covers core issues that dominate the United States polity. The prisms include economic strength, military success, instability or political unrest, and presidential candidates’ attributes. To correctly analyze these attributes without manipulation of polls can generate a close answer to Lichtman’s prediction.

“The toughest thing in being a forecaster is to keep your politics out of it,” Lichtman acknowledges in one of his videos.  He is aware of the dangers of personal values, but how long can Lichtman, who was once an aspirant, continue to predict presidential elections and how long before candidates start taking him seriously as one who has the keys to the White House.

Roles Of The Stock Market On Investment

Roles Of The Stock Market On Investment

The stock market is coming together of buyers and sellers who trade in stock. It is nothing like a grocery for buying bread or meat. Firstly, the solitary option is not just to buy stocks; stocks can as well be sold. Secondly, there is a more thorough process for trading in the stock market. One has to go through a licensed brokerage to buy or sell a stock. This brokerage then make trades on your behalf.

Not far behind the stock market is the stock exchange. The Stock exchange is an infrastructure used to aid the buying and selling of shares. It can also be defined as a traditional medium or marketplace where securities, like stocks and bonds, are exchanged between a stockbroker and a trader. It is considered as the key component of a stock market.

55% of Americans are invested in the stock market.  A percentage caused by the great depression of 2008. As of then, 62% of America’s adult population owned their stock. Stock investment is strongly dependent on household income, formal education, age, and race. The stock market is not limited to individuals. Big companies are the major players in the stock market. Companies are often seen aiming to be listed on a reputable stock exchange such as the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) or Nasdaq for attractive reasons.

Some of the benefits of the stock market to listed companies include liquidity for the company’s shareholders, stock option plans that can be put in place for employees, and listed shares that can be used as currency by the company. These might be the reasons why large companies are public rather than private.

Over a long period, stocks generate investment returns that beat every other asset class. Returns on stocks can then be realized through capital gains or dividends. Capital gains are shared profits of publicly-traded companies. And the dividend is the amount given per share of stock one owns. Another way investors profit is by selling their stock. Usually, this is done only after the price has increased.

In conclusion, one major player in the stock market that links participants and acts as financial advisors is the stockbroker. What they do is to buy and sell stocks on behalf of their clients. Their role is, however, more sophisticated than that. Other roles include investment adviser, financial adviser, wealth manager, or investment professional. They are people to be trusted for a smooth investment ride in the stock market.

Revealed! How to create innovative ideas for company’s growth

create innovative ideas

Innovative ideas are essential for a company’s growth. Innovative ideas create long-term value for companies with the support of consumers, markets, and stakeholders, etc. In other words, innovative ideas help companies leverage various relationships to create an opportunity for future growth. It is important to know that when innovative ideas are effectively implemented, the company will enjoy massive growth. This article addresses how innovative ideas can be created for company growth.

Companies that desire massive growth in their daily sales must invest in human resource management. Companies need to have an effective human resources unit. This unit will help to motivate employees. There is no doubt that when employees are constantly motivated, they will create ideas that will attract new customers and retain existing ones. This will, in turn, increase sales. Companies must also make sure that capacity building and development programs are initiated via the human resources unit. Companies that are at the top of the industrial chain always invest heavily in human resource management.

Companies that will thrive excellently must understand the art of engaging their customers. It is important for companies to always receive feedback from their customers. This will allow the creation of ideas that will match the current and emerging needs of the customers. Again, the feedback can be used to improve the quality of companies’ products and services.

One of the essential ways companies engage their customers is by making their brands identifiable. In other words, every customer can identify with companies’ brands. That would have added value to the company and improve customers’ loyalty.

Another viable way of creating innovative ideas for company growth is to conduct a SWOT (Strength, Weakness, Opportunities, and Threats) analysis. When companies conduct a SWOT analysis, they are to identify the key aspects they are lacking. The SWOT analysis also helps companies to determine the effectiveness and impact of their ideas.

In conclusion, there is no doubt that there are many other ways through which companies create innovative ideas. These are just but a few. However, it is evident that for companies to constantly create new and innovative ideas, they have the right help to achieve their desired results.

 

How Jeff Bezos Made His Billions: A Guide To Self-Employment

Jeff Bezos

Jeff Bezos is popularly known as the founder and CEO of Amazon, an online store and multinational technology company. He is also the founder of Blue Origin, a sub-orbital spaceflight services and aerospace manufacturing company. Bezos launched Amazon in 1994 as an online bookstore, and it has since grown to become virtually an everything store.

Are you self-employed? Is your business not moving as quickly as you’d hoped it would? Let’s examine some of Jeff Bezos’ top qualities. Without a doubt, they’ll kick start your journey to success.

Learn to take reasonable risks. When Jeff Bezos started out, he exuded a willingness to undertake risk. Having a regular paying job at D.E. Shawn on Wall Street, he gave it up to pursue his dreams. He began the company at a Seattle garage, despite it having a 30% success probability. There were prominent physical book stores that owned the market at the time. However, he believed taking his business online was going to overtake them. And it sure did.

Become more resourceful. Bezos was very resourceful and had a clear vision for expansion. Studying the current trends at the time, he realized the Internet was the way forward and took advantage of it. After three years of selling just books, he expanded the company to include audio and video CDs. In subsequent years, he kept adding more products to the store. Bezos had a clear vision of what he wanted from the onset, and he remained relentless in spreading his branches to virtually everything.

Again, if you’re going to succeed as a self-employed entrepreneur, you must master the art of adaptation and immediate response to setbacks. Did you know that, in 2002, Amazon was at the brink of bankruptcy? Hard to imagine, right? But, at that point, Bezos responded adequately to the situation. He closed down some distribution centers and laid off a fraction of the staff. With other strategic actions put in place, Amazon was back on its feet the following year.

The life and journey of Jeff Bezos to wealth is definitely a must-study for anyone self-employed. There’s a whole lot to learn from him. Have a broad vision, be ready to take risks, and take strategic steps to overcome setbacks, amongst other. With the right mindset and actions, you can be on the path to excellence in your self-employment career.

 

Why a sole trader could benefit from the use of a virtual phone system

Why a sole trader could benefit from the use of a virtual phone system

A sole trader is defined as a one person business who runs their business without employees and solely through their own efforts. Sole trader businesses can be profitable; however, they are usually limited to smaller sized companies which have a low output, but enough to make a profit. A sole trader is a good choice for many people who believe they have the skills to make a product or a service on their own, and the nuances and complexities can be handled by one person. A virtual phone system is used by companies of all sizes, from sole traders to small to medium enterprises and large corporations. It may seem like a sole trader could just use a landline and be fine in their business, which in most cases could be true. However, the many features that come with the use of these platforms be highly beneficial to those who are sole traders.

The landline is dead

The landline has served the people for a long time now and has served them well. The age of technology has ushered in a number of different types of products which dwarf older and now obsolete devices, and a virtual phone system does exactly that. The landline is limited to the use of hardware which needs to be wired into a set location and hooked up to a phone line. While this makes it easy for those who stay in one location, in a fast paced world, many entrepreneurs and businesspeople opt to stay on the move. Whether that be for meetings and client facing situations, or because they work other jobs too. The virtual phone system presents an opportunity to be able to make and receive calls regardless of your location, as long as a device and Internet connection is present.

The landline is dead, all hail the virtual phone system!

Personalized numbers

The virtual phone system allows sole traders to be able to personalize their numbers to one that suits their business. Often you may see those businesses with numbers that spell out a word related to their field, or maybe they want a number that is easy to recognize and remember. Regardless of whether the purpose is for creativity or marketing, the virtual phone system allows the sole trader to have a unique number which is personalized and recognizable for their customers and clients.

Personal voicemails

One of the most important parts of customer engagement is to be able to make the customer feel like they matter. When calling into a sole trader business after hours, a virtual phone system is able to create a voicemail that informs the customer of afterhours calls or can redirect them to another number. This is a feature exclusive to a virtual phone system and can help to increase customer engagement and satisfaction subsequently.

Appear more professional

The use of a virtual phone system can help a sole trader to look more professional and larger than they are. It is true that customers will likely opt for a company that appears bigger and is more professional, and a virtual phone system can give off that professional look. This is because the majority of large corporations will use a virtual phone system. With a sole trader using one, they can look more professional and bigger, helping to secure customers. It is vital to be professional, especially when you are in a market that is highly competitive, like much of the business world. Any competitive advantage is a good one, no matter how slight the advantage.

How To Ace Your Job Interviews

How To Ace Your Job Interviews

It’s natural to feel nervous when you have a job interview scheduled. You might feel uncertain about how you would perform or whether you can make a lasting impression on the interview panel. Well, have no fear! With the tips provided here, you can be sure of a winning strategy to ace job interviews every time!

The first tip is to prepare. Your level of preparedness goes a long way in determining the outcome of an interview. For instance, make sure you know all that’s in your résumé by heart. Make adequate research on the job you are applying for. Understand the metrics involved and the functions to be performed. Familiarize yourself with possible interview questions and provide adequate answers to them beforehand. You should also know the company you’re applying to, who they are, and what they do.

The next thing you should have sorted out is how you’d look on the day of the interview. Your appearance is the first impression that would be had of you, so you want to kill it. Dress well, look good and professional. Arrive at the interview location before the assigned time. Take a look around and familiarize yourself with the environment and people there.

The last and probably most important thing you need to ace the interview is confidence. Take a deep breath. There’s no need to be nervous, especially if you have prepared. Stride confidently into the room and show the panel the value you would add if you’re hired. Answer all questions asked thoughtfully and thoroughly. Speak calmly and confidently. Your goal is to ensure that the panel sees that you’re the best person for the job.

An invitation to a job interview takes you halfway to getting the job. However, how you perform determines the other half. The primary purpose of interviews is to assess who you are and what you can do. You have to give it your best shot. Think up possible situations and questions, get prepared, appear comely and professional, be ready to show them your worth, and go get that job.

Fast-growing branch of media in America is the digital news industry

Fast-growing branch of media in America is the digital news industry

One fast-growing branch of media in America is the digital news industry. And as it stands, it poses quite a complex future. Many Americans keep acquiring news via the Internet, which has made employment at digital-native outlets increase. However, digital news has been clothed with issues that affect the broader media environment.

An increasing percentage of American adults are noted to prefer getting news online via websites, apps, and social media. But TV remains the most popular source of news. The reason for the preference is not farfetched.  Online platforms are a fast means of getting information. They are also an easy and convenient way to do so. Technology is to thank for that.

There have been several job creations spurred from the digital news industry, as the number of digital-native newsrooms keeps increasing. This has led to the decrease of newsroom jobs over the years, even though newspapers had, for a long time, received lots of media attention. More Americans get news on social media than from newspaper prints, with Facebook dominating as the most used site for news by Americans.

The problem with the digital news industry is that Americans are still quite skeptical about the authenticity of the information they see on social media, although they regularly turn to social media for news. That’s pretty much ironic but true. The concerns regarding the inaccuracies on social media news keep getting prevalent even among users who prefer to acquire their news there.

All these, in the end, have changed the way Americans use social media as a result of potential inaccurate news. Many have stopped following certain news sources. And many still stay with those online sources they ‘feel’ or have validated that their news sources are authentic and prompt.

In sum, the digital news industry in the United States does not show signs of slowing down, as technology, with a view to making life easy and less stressful, keeps accentuating its usage, especially through social media and accessible gadgets smartphones. The big question that pops up on this issue is, ‘to what extent can technological advances be trusted regarding the spread of authentic news via the digital media industry in this present age?’

Top 5 Art Pieces You Should Be Aware Of

Andrew Newell Wyeth

Artworks are considered to be an expression of how an artist feels and sees the world. They can be used to communicate the artist’s view on a particular subject on life. Art has been the means through which civilizations and people have passed across messages. The value has risen over the years, superseding the original intent. In this article, we would look at 5 of the best art pieces that have garnered reputation and allure.

The artwork by Andrew Newell Wyeth is probably one of the greatest from the United States, especially this painting of Christina’s world. This artwork depicts Christina Olson, a paralyzed woman in a parched-out field. The anguish of her struggle can be seen in the depiction. This, amongst other things, makes the painting a classic.

Monalisa has been considered widely as the most valuable painting in the world. This noble artwork was painted by the great Leonardo DaVinci, depicting a beautiful woman whose identity has been lost in time. Monalisa is currently the property of France, as it presently sits at the Louvre Museum in Paris.

Not many would have thought of Warhol’s style of art as a classic, but his work has laid a field for diversification in Contemporary Art. His work on Triple Elvis in 1963 shows the famous pop king Elvis Preston in a triple image form. As one of Andy Warhol’s many artworks, this still stands out to have stood the test of time.

Another great artwork is the sculpture of Perseus holding the head of Medusa by Benvenuto Cellini. This bronze sculpture was built between 1545 and 1554. And it is currently in Florence, Italy.

Jackson Pollock’s Mural of 1943 is one of America’s top-rated paintings you could come across. Through the painting, Pollock showed he could present his talent and creativity on canvas. Mural currently sits at the University of Iowa Museum of Art and stands out as Pollock’s biggest painting.

Art is an inherent part of the human way of life and would continue to hold much importance as long as the world exists.

 

Investing In Mineral Resources: Gold

Mineral Resources gold

Minerals are non-renewable resources for the construction, manufacturing, and energy companies. For states that are endowed with many such resources, it has proven to be a dependable contributor to the economy. However, it must be explored in a well conservative manner. Hence, the U.S. Natural Resources Conservation Service. To improve, protect, and conserve natural resources.

The United States is the third-largest country in the world geographically. Her large expanse of land is also home to a lot of mineral resources. Some of the minerals mined in the U.S. include coal, copper, lithium, silver, iron ore, nickel, lead, and highly-priced gold.

However, gold is not the most valuable mineral resource. Other mineral resources such as lithium, blue garnet, jadeite, and rubies would beat gold to that accolade. Yet, gold is a very reputable mineral, especially in the financial market. In 2018, the United States produced 210 tonnes of Gold, which makes her a net exporter of gold.

Investors looking to invest in gold have options to assess. An option is buying the physical gold metal. This investment option accounted for two-third of annual gold investments. The purchase can be made from a metal dealer, a bank, or brokerage. This investment insulates an investor from a system-wide crisis.

There is another option, which is buying gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Gold ETFs invest in up to 99.5 percent of pure gold. ETFs are listed on the BSE and NSE, which means they can easily transact in qualities lower than physical ownership. It is a good financial diversification strategy.

For experienced investors, who do not want to risk a lot of their capital, they can buy gold derivatives options: futures, forwards, and options. It requires a good knowledge of financial security and may not be suitable for all investors.

The last suggestion here for investing in gold would be, buying gold mining stock. Here, the company’s stocks correlate directly with gold prices. However, mining companies can either fail or succeed in how they deploy capitals and generate profits.

Gold is seen as a haven in investment because it is less volatile than other investments, like stock. Although gold is a more feasible investment, it has its hassles. These difficulties encompass insurance, transaction fees, and cost of storage. You should also determine the purity of the gold before buying it. You don’t want to pay for 18 karats when you are only getting a 14 karat piece.

Public Speaking Tips From Barrack Obama

Barrack Obama
Barrack Obama, 44th U.S. President

It’s no news that Barrack Obama is regarded as one of the most notable orators of our time. His eloquence and depth of speech have spurred crowds into action many times. In fact, his public speaking skills are one of the endearing qualities that led him to be elected as the 44th president of the United States.

Imagine for a moment that you can address your counterparts and other notable members of society with the oratory prowess of Obama. That would be a big win for your career, right? In each of Obama’s speeches, we’ve noticed a pattern. These have been curated here as his public speaking tips. If you want to keep your audience spellbound, try out the following tips.

First, begin on a light mood even when it’s a serious address. Obama does this often by either making a light joke or commenting about a subject everyone can relate to. This usually puts the listeners in a relaxed mood and more receptive. It makes them want to keep hearing as well.

Also, get personal with your audience. In his speeches, Obama speaks about himself and his family. This warms up the listeners to him. They are reminded that he has much the same experiences as they do. So, make use of empathy to captivate your audience’s attention.

It is important you are well aware of your audience. When Obama makes a speech to a particular set of people, he speaks with a peculiarity to that audience. And when he speaks to the world, he carries everyone along. Regardless of where you’re from, you can resonate with what he has to say and even feel like he’s speaking directly to you.

Now, there are other things to note. For instance, ensure you hit your message clearly with punchlines. Making a long speech can sometimes have your listeners unsure of the crux of your message. This isn’t the case with Obama. He emphasizes his points with strong punchlines you’re bound to ponder upon. He then pauses for you to do just that. That’s how you make a statement!

The art of public speaking can’t be developed overnight. It can, however, be cultivated with time and practice. In this article, you must have learned a few tips on how Barack Obama does it effortlessly, and how you can do the same. Don’t forget to practice!